How healthy will YOUR country be in 2040? Table of 195 nations reveals Spanish people will live the longest in 22 years’ time (but the UK and US aren’t even in the top 20)
- People in Spain will have an average life expectancy of 85.8 years in 2040
- Lesotho, in South Africa, will have the lowest, with just 57.3 years
- The UK will rise from 26th to 23rd place, with a future lifespan of 83.3 years
- And the US will drop 21 places for 43rd to 64th place, increasing by only a year
- Experts predict a rise in deaths from obesity, cancer and heart and lung disease
The 10 countries where life expectancy will be highest and lowest by 2040 have today been named by scientists.
Spain tops the charts, with people being born in 2040 expected to live until they are 85.8 years old.
Whereas Lesotho, within South Africa, will be worst off, with its average life expectancy likely to be just 57.3 years.
The UK is expected to remain outside of the top 20, ranking 23rd with a lifespan of 83.3, and the US will drop from 43rd to 64th place – with an increase of just one year – the study claims.
Researchers from Washington University have predicted the average lifespans of countries around the world and predict more people will die of non-contagious diseases like cancer (file image)
Experts say the improvements of recent generations are likely to slow down because of health problems like obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, alcohol and tobacco.
The global health forecasts were made by researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
In research published in medical journal The Lancet, they revealed people in every country in the world are likely to live longer in 2040 than they do now.
But the scientists predict there will be a rise in the number of people dying from non-contagious diseases like cancer and lung and kidney disease.
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How quickly countries’ life expectancies rise will depend on how well governments deal with these growing health threats.
‘Inequalities will continue to be large,’ said researcher Dr Christopher Murray.
‘In a substantial number of countries, too many people will continue earning relatively low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely.
‘But nations could make faster progress by helping people tackle the major risks, especially smoking and poor diet.’
Beneath Spain in the top 10 will be Japan, with a 2040 life expectancy of 85.7 years, Singapore (85.4), Switzerland (85.2), Portugal and Italy (84.5), Israel (84.4), France (84.3), and Luxembourg and Australia (84.1).
All the countries are in the current top 10 for life expectancy, except Portugal and Israel which are predicted to replace Andorra and Iceland, currently sixth and ninth.
THE 10 COUNTRIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2040
THE 10 COUNTRIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE LOWEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2040
African countries continue to have the worst rates of premature death with people in the Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia and Zimbabwe still expected to die before the age of 65 by 2040.
The bottom 10 in 2040 will consist of the Central African Republic (58.4), Zimbabwe (61.3), Somalia (63.6), Swaziland (65.1), Afghanistan (65.2), Kiribati (65.7), Micronesia (66.2), Papua New Guina (66.3) and the Solomon Islands (66.5).
The average lifespan in the UK is set to increase from 80.8 years to 83.3, moving Brits up the world league table from 26th to 23rd.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics last month showed there was virtually no extension of life expectancy between 2015 and 2017.
It is the first time since modern measurements were launched nearly 40 years ago that life expectancy has stalled.
WHICH 10 COUNTRIES HAD THE LOWEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2016?
WHICH 10 COUNTRIES HAD THE HIGHEST LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 2016?
Researchers from the University of Washington are slightly more optimistic, predicting that if trends continue as they are, the average person in the UK will live a year longer with each decade that passes.
But average life expectancy in the US, one of the world’s richest nations, is forecast to increase by only 1.1 years to 79.8.
Experts suggest this is likely the result of more obesity-related diseases, such as heart disease and several cancers.
Study author Dr Kyle Foreman said countries could change their outcomes with better public health initiatives.
He said: ‘The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories.
‘But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.’
To make the predictions, scientists looked at the impact of 79 health factors including smoking, body mass index (BMI), and lack of clean water and sanitation on causes of death around the world.
In 2016 – the last time the study was carried out – four of the top 10 causes of premature death were non-communicable diseases and injuries.
The new forecast shows that by 2040 this figure increases to eight with heart disease, stroke, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, lung cancer and road accident injuries are all in the top 10 causes of premature death in 2040.
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